Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."

• Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.